Mobility is one of the hottest sectors, with start-ups and traditional OEMs constantly developing new technologies and transportation options. The influx of innovative solutions has yet to solve the problem of congested roads, however, and almost every country is feeling the effects. Drivers in Munich waste an average of 87 hours in traffic every year; in Los Angeles, wasted time in traffic hit 119 hours before the pandemic, when roads were more crowded.1Jörg Heinrich, “Major urban mobility trends of the future,” ISPO, August 26, 2022; Jennifer Liu, “Commuters in this city spend 119 hours a year stuck in traffic,” CNBC, September 4, 2019.
Worldwide, 1.3 billion vehicles are now in use, and many of these are privately owned. There are 868 vehicles per 1,000 capita in the United States, 635 in Norway, and 391 in Mexico. China, by comparison, has only 219 per 1,000 capita, but that still accounts for more than 300 million vehicles on the road. Private vehicles contribute to road congestion because they typically accommodate fewer passengers than public transportation or other shared options. The appeal of private ownership remains strong in many countries despite the recent rise of ride-sharing services. McKinsey analysis shows that private cars are used in 45 percent of all trips, outpacing public transport, micromobility (consisting of scooters and bikes—some electric—and other small vehicles), ride-sharing, ride hailing, and walking (exhibit).2Throughout this article, data on mobility usage were computed using a model from the McKinsey Center for Future Mobility that estimates the share of vehicle miles traveled by transportation mode.
Exhibit
This legacy of private-car congestion does more than frustrate people. It also encourages developers to build garages and public officials to install more parking spaces, gobbling up scarce, valuable urban land that could otherwise be devoted to parks or other amenities. The United States, one of the world’s most car-dependent countries, now has eight available parking spots for every car.3Kaley Overstreet, “When 5% of the United States is covered by parking lots, how do we redesign our cities?,” ArchDaily, February 1, 2022. Additionally, the expansion of roadways and related infrastructure to ease congestion forces governments to spend more on maintenance and operations.4Across the United States, state and local governments spent $617 per capita on highways and roads in 2019; “State and Local Backgrounders: Highway and road expenditures,” Urban Institute, last updated March 2, 2023. And most critically, the high rates of private-car ownership are contributing to increased carbon emissions.
Within the next decade, however, the mobility ecosystem will most likely undergo a transformation not seen since the early days of the automobile—and one main shift will be the decline of private-car use. Governments are already enacting regulations to reduce the number of vehicles on the road to ease congestion and reduce emissions, and consumers are also voicing preferences for more efficient, green, and convenient transportation options. As technology advances, even more innovative mobility options could emerge, including roboshuttles (shared autonomous minibuses with four to eight seats) or urban air taxis.
The result of all these changes? A mobility ecosystem that is more intelligent, seamless, and environmentally friendly.
Disruptive trends and technologies: The forces transforming mobility
Here’s a look at the disruptive trends and technologies that will shape the future of mobility and the impact that they will have worldwide.
Consumers are excited about the new options
The McKinsey Center for Future Mobility conducts an annual consumer survey that looks at four major trends: autonomous driving, electrification, connectivity, and shared mobility. Many respondents to the 2022 survey say they are open to shifting their transportation habits. Consider a few findings5McKinsey ACES consumer survey, December 2022 (n = 27,036).:
- Almost one-third of respondents (30 percent) plan to increase their use of micromobility (for instance, e-bikes and e-scooters) or shared mobility over the next decade.
- Nearly one-half of respondents (46 percent) are open to replacing their private vehicles with other modes of transport in the coming decade.
- Most respondents (70 percent) are willing to use a shared autonomous shuttle with up to three other travelers; 42 percent of those trips would otherwise be taken by private vehicle.
The desire for a more enjoyable mobility experience is behind many of these shifts. A quick trip on the subway while reading a book often beats an hour behind the wheel in traffic, and cities that can offer that convenience might increase metro ridership. Sustainability concerns are also critical. The survey results show that 46 percent of respondents have already switched to more sustainable brands or products, and another 16 percent plan to make considerable changes to promote sustainability.
Regulations are driving awareness and sustainability
In 2020, the transportation sector accounted for about 20 percent6“Global carbon dioxide emissions from 1970 to 2021, by sector,” Statista, February 6, 2023. of global greenhouse-gas emissions, with more than 40 percent7“Distribution of carbon dioxide emissions produced by the transportation sector worldwide in 2020, by subsector,” Statista, February 6, 2023. of the total coming from private cars. To promote greener transport, over 150 cities have implemented measures to curb private-vehicle use, which include efforts to increase awareness about emissions from private cars, limit the number of private cars in cities, or provide financial incentives to use more environmentally friendly mobility modes.
Some regional and national officials are enacting similar regulations. Here’s a sampling of guidelines and incentives designed to promote sustainable transportation.
China
As part of the Comprehensive Beijing Rail Transit Network Plan, Beijing is expanding its subway system to reach a total length of 1,625 kilometers by 2035. The city is taking steps to ensure that rail transit accounts for at least 27 percent of all its public transit.
Chengdu has started to build the biggest urban cycle lane network in the world, aiming for a total length of 1,920 kilometers by 2025 and 17,000 kilometers by 2040.
France
France was the first country to ban short-haul flights if alternative modes of transport lasting two and a half hours or less are available.
The mayor of Paris, Anne Hidalgo, announced plans to create a “15-minute city”—one in which city residents can perform six essential functions (living, work, commerce, health, education, and entertainment) within a 15-minute walk or bike ride from their homes.
Germany
To reduce private-car usage, Heidelberg started a pilot program to create bicycle lanes and provide free public-transport tickets, valid for a year, to residents who sell their vehicles.
German states and the federal government plan to begin offering a nationwide €49 ticket for local and regional public transit in May 2023; Munich has announced that it will provide the ticket to its employees free of charge.
Potsdam is increasing its parking fees by up to 100 percent, except for car-sharing vehicles; if a shared vehicle is electric, it is exempt from any fees until 2026.
Norway
Oslo has removed many of its city center’s on-street parking spots to provide more space for bike lanes, parks, and pedestrian roads.
Norway’s Climate Change Act has established an emission reduction target of at least 50 to 55 percent by 2030 and a 2050 target to become a low-emission society.
United Kingdom
The United Kingdom has invested £2 billion in initiatives to help increase cycling and walking (for instance, creating wider pavements and pop-up bike lanes); it will also encourage commuters to walk or bike rather than take public transit.
The UK Department of Transportation plans to invest an additional £44 billion from 2024 to 2029 to operate, maintain, and expand the UK rail system.
United States
San Francisco has eliminated minimum parking requirements because such guidelines have been shown to increase traffic and emissions. City leaders may also dedicate certain lanes to ride-sharing vehicles to help promote that mobility option.
The United States’ 2022 Bipartisan Infrastructure Law specifies an annual contribution of $1.44 billion to the Transportation Alternatives Set-Aside (a fund designed to help state and local projects for pedestrian and bicycle infrastructure, among other improvements) through 2026—almost double the $850 million annual investment made from 2018 through 2020.
New trends and technologies are emerging
Some new mobility trends and automotive technologies, especially leading-edge electric-vehicle (EV) batteries, frequently make the headlines. Others are emerging more quietly but could have an equally significant effect on future mobility, although some may not exert their full impact for several years.
Passenger vehicles in Europe and North America will have an increased amount of level-three and level-four automation features, which will make them highly automated or capable of self-driving on highways by 2025.8 Major urban areas, such as Beijing, London, and New York, could become top markets for shared autonomous vehicles, given the large pool of potential customers in these locations.9
8 “Autonomous driving’s future: Convenient and connected”, McKinsey, January 6, 2023.
9 “Where does shared autonomous mobility go next?,” McKinsey, January 3, 2023.
The global micromobility market is worth about $180 billion today. McKinsey analysis shows that the value could more than double by 2030 to reach about $440 billion.
Intermodal journeys involve more than one type of transportation. Platforms that integrate all possible mobility combinations for a particular route are already starting to emerge, allowing travelers to plan their journeys more easily. Jelbi, for instance, shows possible routes involving various mobility modes, as well as their time and cost.10
10 “Jelbi,” Berliner Verkehrsbetriebe, accessed April 18, 2023.
Shared mobility (including ride hailing) is on the rise, as consumers look for transportation options that are convenient, cost-effective, and sustainable. This segment could generate up to $1 trillion in revenues by 2030.11
11 “Shared mobility: Sustainable cities, shared destinies,” McKinsey, January 5, 2023.
