Raphael Thys
Art: Los Moscos, Mark Bradford
On BBC’s HARDtalk 5 years ago, I was slammed across the board for saying billions of lives were at risk. The liberal climate movements tried to refute and play down the existential risks ahead. The last few months have shown ever more clearly that I was right. After all, what do we actually think the “end of civilization” will look like?
Several new scientific papers from Ripple and Pearce have outlined that not only are billions of lives on the line, but that “richer humans will be responsible for [the] killing”. This month, the NASA Climate Scientist, Peter Kalmus, also added his voice to that position. The time for shying away from our existential reality is over. The precautionary principle dictates that these realities form and guide the mission of our lives - that only a revolution to change who makes the big decisions is going to save us.
Read on for Kalmus’ quote and the regular monthly science briefing which lays out further scientific evidence of our civilizational collapse, the media’s anodyne commentary, and my criticisms of it. This should help you cut through the propaganda and repression.
"If left unchecked, every year on average will be hotter than the last, and at some point ... global heating will take down civilization as we know it. Billions of lives are at risk ..."
Maybe 2023 will be remembered as the year when the word "billion" entered the public sphere as the number of people who are going to be killed. When the liberal climate industry breaks down and people start to focus on just how serious the situation is.
Exponential Temperature Increase
The situation is that temperatures have been going up exponentially since the 1970s and we will pass 2C in the next 15 to 20 years. After which feedback loops will be triggered and we will continue past 3C and 4C.
Here's just a snapshot of what those exponential temperatures really mean:
"By 2050–2074, two successive years of single or compound end-of-century extremes, unprecedented to date, exceed 1-in-10 likelihoods"
Such extreme temperatures mean that one in every ten years our ability to feed ourselves will be destroyed. Don't look away.
Fossil Fuels Are At A Record High
Despite years of commitments from countries to slash the emissions of greenhouse gases that are warming the planet, they are still on the rise. Carbon dioxide released from burning fossil fuels is expected to rise by 1.1 percent in 2023 compared with 2022, scientists found in an extensive
This is what it looks like when cognitive dissonance goes non-linear. Especially when they have even got the full picture. Look at this new report of underreported emissions:
"Emissions have been soaring well beyond official statistics reported by countries."
On top of everything else, we find out they have all been lying as well. Are we really going to let these criminals take our children into an endless hell hole?
Worse Than Previously Thought
Climate Impact Research (PIK) shows that state-of-the-art climate models significantly underestimate how much extreme rainfall increases under global warming
“The intensity and frequency of extreme rainfall increases exponentially with global warming,”
So much for "state of the art" - Linear analysis is fucked. How many experts are in their own bubbles of expertise and not looking at the bigger picture? Cascading tipping point will send us into a hothouse earth. Forever.
Just look at this new report on ice levels:
If there is surely one phrase that sums up 2023 it is "worse than previously thought".
Even the new Global Tipping Points report minces its words.
"The climate change assessment process has tended to focus on the most likely outcome, rather than evaluating the highest-risk outcomes. But this is poor risk assessment and it is leaving society ill equipped for what lies ahead."
Understatement of the century – it's a total fucking disaster!
How many euphemisms do we have to deal with before someone finally breaks free of the system and the corporate media to say how it really is?
This is what the Labour leadership refuses to accept - there is a point when we cannot stop the chaos, and the chaos gets exponentially worse. Reformism is simply irrelevant according to the science. It's self-evidently a treasonous crime for Keir Starmer to pretend otherwise.
Economic Risks
“Nature is not the elephant in the room, it’s the huge green scorpion running towards us”
At some point the penny will drop that nature is stronger than us, especially at above 2C global average temperatures. Yet to add to the fuckery, that realistion is going to be seriously delayed by fossil fuels firms covering up the dirt, as this new report in Nature points out:
"16 of the world’s most polluting fossil fuel companies were associated with more than 1700 climate misinformation ads on Facebook alone, with 150 million user interactions"
It's clear that the public sphere is completely corrupted - the solution: door knocking, leading to assemblies, leading to revolutions, leading to legally binding citizens assemblies. Got a better idea?
Water Crisis in Gaza
The water situation in Gaza is catastrophic.
One of the things no one wants to talk about is how many civilians will die once the whole of the Middle East faces social collapse as the region becomes "uninhabitable" (that nice environmentalist word for total fucking murderous hell), as the world's rich take us over 2C.
COP Fuckery
Part of me feels bad swearing away at the fuckery of COP28. ‘Calm down Roger - don't get carried away.’ Then we read the latest from Dr. James Hansen - arguably the greatest climate scientist of our time.What does he say?
We are going over 2C - meaning we face the prospect of 1 billion people uprooted and forced to migrate. No social scientist or historian with any self respect can avoid the judgement that this will be total hell: 20 times the number of refugees produced by WW2.
Me swearing away on twitter should be the least and last of your worries.
I don't know if Dr. James Hansen will appreciate me saying this, but he is one of my favourite climate scientists. Not just because of his immense expertise, but because he is one of the only top scientists in the world who is capable of calling a spade a spade.
UK Temperatures to Plummet
More importantly, temps will stay below 10C in summer. As a farmer I can tell you there's not a chance in hell of being able to grow summer crops at scale in those temps.
What sort of total fucking stupid death cult political regime takes this risk?
Each month of these reports is another nail in humanity’s coffin. No one is coming to save us. It falls to you, the reader, to step up in defiance. To cast away this rotting system and build a 21st century revolution. Over the next few months, my team and I will be building a community of leaders from across the globe. Join it, whilst you still can.
Become a Leader. Join The Sunday Zoom.
Sign up for nonviolent civil resistance with Just Stop Oil in the UK or via the A22 Network internationally. Alternatively, you can now sign up for a new Citizen's Assembly project I'm helping called Humanity.