Raphael ThysPhoto by Nicholas Doherty on Unsplash
On Earth Day (April 22) 2021, President Biden announced that the United States would achieve a 50–52% reduction of economy-wide greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from 2005 levels by 2030. That is a significant reduction in less than a decade. Americans should be optimistic about this goal though. There are numerous trends conspiring to make this major reduction in economy-wide GHG emissions possible. Here are 10 reasons to believe we are going to hit the targets set by President Biden.
1. It is 50% from 2005 levels, not today’s levels.
In 2017, Carbon Brief did an analysis that showed how the United States had reduced carbon emissions by 14% from 2005 levels. Given that the United States was able to reduce carbon emissions by 14% over 10 years, it is reasonable to postulate that with some strategic policy efforts and significantly increased funding we will be able to cut by another 36% or more over the next 8 years to get to our 50% reduction goal by 2030. The Carbon Brief analysis attributes the reduced carbon emissions to coal-to-gas switching in the power sector (33%), wind generation (19%), solar power (3%), reduced electricity use (18%), reduced fuel consumption in homes and industry (12%), and changes in transport emissions (15%).
2. The Corporate Average Fuel Economy (CAFE) Standards
In 2005, the CAFE Standard for passenger vehicles was 27.5 miles per gallon. CAFE Standards have been increasing steadily since 2010, and on April 1st, 2022, President Biden announced carmakers would be required to increase fuel-efficiency of their fleets by 8% annually for the 2024 and 2025 model years, and 10% for 2026, which would result in a CAFE Standard in 2026 of 49 miles per gallon. That’s an over 75% increase in fuel economy from 2005 to 2026.
3. Wind and solar keep growing.
In March 2022, 18% of electricity generation came from wind and solar, which was an all-time high. This trend will continue as installed capacity increases drastically over the next decade. Clean electricity standards are ramping up in states across the country. There are 21 states that have set carbon-free electricity goals for 2045 and 2050, which will inherently mean significant progress between now and 2030. Large corporations are also making 100% renewables commitments through initiatives like RE100.
4. The electric vehicle boom
Lightning is about to strike in the electric vehicle industry. Over the next few years, Ford and GM are releasing mass market electric vehicle models including the Ford F-150 and the Chevrolet Silverado, which will translate to major emissions reductions as hundreds of thousands of light duty internal combustion engine trucks are taken off the roads over the next decade. There are also an increasing number of companies growing their electric vehicle fleets. For example, FedEx has committed to 100% of new-vehicle purchases being electric by 2030.
5. The rise of ESG investing
From 2018 to 2020, Environment, Social, and Governance (ESG) investing strategies grew by 42%. A Harvard study published in February 2022 estimated that there is over $330 billion in assets under management in ESG funds. This trend means more investors are taking a long-term view and adopting climate-aligned objectives.
6. Remote work is here to stay.
In September 2021, 45% of workers in the United States were still working remotely at least part time. Most employees in the United States want to work from home at least some of the time, and many are now willing to leave their job if remote work is eliminated. Remote work not only reduces emissions associated with long commutes, but also reduces paper usage and office electricity usage significantly.
7. We’ve passed or are nearly passed peak oil.
Demand for oil may have rebounded to pre-COVID levels, but transportation electrification and increasing fuel economy trends indicate we are in the process of passing peak oil. Carbon Brief did an analysis in 2020 of BP’s annual outlook which showed multiple scenarios including a business as usual scenario, a rapid scenario, and an ambitious “net zero” scenario. The rapid scenario and net zero scenario both show steep declines in oil demand from today until their 2050 time horizon.
8. There is consensus on super-pollutants.
In 2020, the World Resources Institute (WRI) identified 10 priorities for President Biden to address the climate crisis. In this analysis, WRI outlines the super-pollutants that are causing significantly more harm than carbon dioxide including methane, hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs), and nitrogen oxide. The good news is that there is growing bipartisan consensus and action on recently calling for an 85% phase down of the production and consumption of HFCs.
9. More states are taking on appliance and equipment standards.
The U.S. Department of Energy’s Building Technology Office is responsible for setting minimum energy conservation standards for appliances and equipment that are used in residential, commercial, and industrial buildings. This work is of growing importance and could play a big role in achieving the 2030 goal given that almost 12% of U.S. carbon dioxide emissions come from burning fossil fuels in our buildings for heat and hot water.
“Building codes should encourage new construction to go all-electric, saving money by not installing gas lines to begin with, as more and more cities are requiring. Some builders are reluctant to embrace this step because they think consumers want gas stoves.” — Dan Lashof, World Resources Institute
10. The circular economy, carbon accounting, and emission performance standards for cement, steel and plastics.
Some of the most difficult emissions to cut are those associated with heavy industry, namely cement, steel, and plastics. However, more businesses are starting to adopt circular design practices for their products and carbon accounting practices for their supply chains. This means there will be a more transparent view of the embodied carbon in products and services in our economy. A 2018 report by The Energy Transitions Commission identifies a number of innovative strategies to help curb carbon emissions quickly in harder-to-abate sectors by 2050.
Conclusion
President Biden’s 2030 emissions reduction goal is definitely feasible, and there are numerous trends conspiring to make that goal achievable. That doesn’t mean we can just sit back and relax, but it does mean that we should feel confident and optimistic about our ability to reduce our GHG emissions to 50% of 2005 levels. The United States is also capable of pursuing and achieving more ambitious climate goals.