In the last decade, predictions have been increasingly harder, and strategic plans have been disrupted by an increasingly numerous unexpected events with huge impacts (aka Black Swans or Wildcards in Future Thinking).

global pandemic,

conflicts, disruptive innovations,…

Business as usual is dead

Harder to predict

2 extreme visions shows a fully wide open future spectrum

our inability to see outside our own

Le futur, les imaginaires du futur ont la gueule de bois. De promesse à menace, difficile de se sentir inspiré, galvanisé par un avenir sans promesse.

Failed predictions have always been there

The right and the bad in predictions

1900

1950

2020

We are not there yet, and we don’t have clear idea of how far we are from reaching this milestone.

“History cannot be explained deterministically and it cannot be predicted because it is chaotic. So many forces are at work and their interactions are so complex that extremely small variations in the strength of the forces and the way they interact produce huge differences in outcomes. Not only that, but history is what is called a ‘level two’ chaotic system. Chaotic systems come in two shapes. Level one chaos is chaos that does not react to predictions about it. The weather, for example, is a level one chaotic system. Though it is influenced by myriad factors, we can build computer models that take more and more of them into consideration, and produce better and better weather forecasts. ”

Excerpt From Sapiens: A Brief History of Humankind Yuval Noah Harari https://itunes.apple.com/WebObjects/MZStore.woa/wa/viewBook?id=0 This material may be protected by copyright.

“Level two chaos is chaos that reacts to predictions about it, and therefore can never be predicted accurately. Markets, for example, are a level two chaotic system. What will happen if we develop a computer program that forecasts with 100 per cent accuracy the price of oil tomorrow? The price of oil will immediately react to the forecast, which would consequently fail to materialise. If the current price of oil is $90 a barrel, and the infallible computer program predicts that tomorrow it will be $100, traders will rush to buy oil so that they can profit from the predicted price rise. As a result, the price will shoot up to $100 a barrel today rather than tomorrow.”

Excerpt From Sapiens: A Brief History of Humankind Yuval Noah Harari https://itunes.apple.com/WebObjects/MZStore.woa/wa/viewBook?id=0 This material may be protected by copyright.

Our brain makes us favour the present over the future

The further the future the harder to predict,

Easy to anticipate where a ball is going to bounce,

What is different when you are trying to predict the next 5 minutes, The next 5 days, Five years, Five centuries?

The age of chaos

The world definitely turned VUCA and this became a permanent state.

So many parameters changing and influencing one and another that output are increasingly complicated to predict.

Exponential forces are opposing each others like : technology and environment.

The term VUCA is coined for a long time now (1987), but clearly there is an acceleration, generalisation and the VUCA state seems now permanent.

A VUCA world changes everything in term of strategic planning and preparation.

In a not so distant past, we were considering evolution like trajectories, identify the trends, take the past, project it on the trends directions and you have your future.

Strategies were made exactly like that (projections for the next 3 to 5 years as a continuation of the last years). Yes some uncertainties may occur, but this was rare and unusual, we could easily put that in the exception column and act without considering it (let’s take an insurance in case of).

Today, black swans and wild cards are the new norm, it is not a question of if, but when.

Business continuity

Crash recovery

Anticipation can turn crisis into opportunities

Resilience is now a key asset to develop for companies because

“Resilience is the new innovation”

What’s to come? What are the next shocks? Crisis? Will it be economic? sanitary? technologic? social? politic? environmental?

How to expect the unexpected?

VUCA > BANI (post VUCA world)

Out approach isn’t working, mitigation and strategies made in this paradigm are just improving the problem

Wide future spectrum

VUCA model has become insufficient to describe the world.

For the vast majority of the people on the planet, chaos is a constant.

BANI

Brittleness :

System that people are relying on are suddenly stop working.

Anxiety :

is everywhere

A blurry road

Predictions have always been hard, but today has reach a new threshold without any precedent.

Thinking about the future can be challenging for several reasons, both psychological and cognitive. Here are some of the factors that contribute to the difficulty:

1. Uncertainty: The future is inherently uncertain. Our brains are wired to seek certainty, and when we can't find it, we may experience discomfort or anxiety. And the only certitude we have, when it comes to the future, is that we have none.
2. Complexity: The number of variables that could influence the future is vast, and predicting how they will interact is extremely complicated. Today, the number of interdependant parameters are creating an explosion in the number of potential outcomes the future may take us to.
3. Limitation of Experience: We base a lot of our thinking on past experiences and current knowledge. The future could include elements for which we have no reference point, making it hard to form an accurate mental picture.
4. Cognitive Biases: Factors like optimism bias, pessimism bias, or status quo bias can all skew our imagination of what the future could be like.
5. Hyper Normalisation
1. No one, as any vision of the future?
1. Or at least almost the two same ones
1. Always in very specific directions (climate change, dystopia, …)
2. Our system evolves around economy
1. What is mankind’s united vision? goal? Or country’s one? Or most of institutions, enterprise?
6. Fear of the Unknown: People often fear what they do not understand, and the future is the ultimate unknown.
7. Unprecedented challenges
1. Environmental crisis
1. Planetary boundaries
2. Technological tsunami impact
1. STEEP
3. Will we have a livable planet for us?
8. Overwhelming Possibilities: When there are countless potential outcomes, simply processing all the options can be mentally exhausting.
1. So many axis of variations, all impacting each others:
1. Will we have enough energy?
1. Hubert’s theory
2. Peak Oil
2. Will we be able to stabilise eco system and regenerate it
1. Carbon crisis
2. 6th mass extinction
3. Pollution
4. … (see boundaries in detail)
3. Will we have enough resources
1. To have digital technologies
2. To travel
3. To go to space
4. To heal
5. To provide everyone
4. Interconnected world or closed one
5. Social justice or thriving inequalities
9. Temporal Discounting: Humans are generally wired to prioritise the present over the future, making it difficult to fully engage with future possibilities.
1. why?
2. biasses?
10. Linear Thinking: Our brains tend to think linearly, but many systems (technological, ecological, social, etc.) evolve in a nonlinear fashion, often accelerating in ways that are hard to predict.
11. Narrative Fallacy: We like to think of history and our lives as coherent, understandable narratives, but the future may not fit neatly into our existing stories.
12. Social and Cultural Influences: Sometimes societal norms or cultural beliefs limit our ability to imagine the future freely. For example, utopian or dystopian narratives in media can colour our views substantially.
13. Psychological Defense Mechanisms: Sometimes it’s emotionally easier to not think about the future, especially if it might include negative events. This can act as a psychological barrier to engaging in future-oriented thought.
1. Anxiety, Solastalgia
2. denial
3. anger

Understanding these factors can help make it a bit easier to engage in future-oriented thinking. Strategies like scenario planning, mindfulness exercises, and consultation with diverse perspectives can all contribute to a more nuanced and comprehensive view of what the future might hold.

What future to prepare for? How to navigate these unique times? How to prepare professionally, personally and as a society?

In these times of uncertain changes and upcoming crisis, it is more important than ever to be well prepared, then to anticipate to what future prepare.

And that’s where it start hitching. While it’s clear than anticipation is more important than never to be prepared for that perfect wave of disruption that is coming, but to what future do we need to prepare?

Who can factually dare to bet all in on one future and not the others?

Techno utopia, cyber punk dystopia, Collapsed world, Post apocalypse one? Or something else, something we struggle to imagine and so consequently to put in action?

Our mind and for organisations, strategical tools are more and more obsolete for planification.