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Everyday my linkedin is flooded with AI artwork created using the above mentioned tools, with quality images that used to take a lifetime of artistic skill to achieve.
Now anyone who can guide the AI via prompts can converge to masterpieces beyond our imaginations. Some of these tools like Disco Diffusion can even animate the results.
With AI gaining a better understanding of composition, light, color, physics, etc, it's only a matter of time before it can create 100x better looking explosions, fire, destruction and water simulations in minutes/hours that takes a massive team months of intense work.
Do you think we will be made redundant by the end of this decade as FX artists?
Discuss.
Sure why not? Back in the early 90s people thought computers (not computer artists) were going to replace all the vfx jobs.
They (artists) did replace those jobs. The old guard either retired or learned the nhew stuff and became supes. Vfx transformed from practical to digital and the number of vfx shot work changed from a handful of jobs numbering in a few hundreds. To a global machine thst now is 10s of 1000s of jobs. Hmm.
Ai will replace some jobs like low level jobs. But it will transform the industry to allow more fx to be done faster and high quality, but you will still need people to manage those processes QC and interface with clients that dont know what they want until the see 100s of versions of what they don't want.
AI will allow, if anything, the industry to grow again. If you are myopic and only see it they way it is today, then yeah its going to change and you'll be left in the cold... but adapability is the key to longevity. Always be learning.
Some will agure that the industry is slow to do this or that. Sure, but never underestimate change. Its inevitable and it comes at you wether you agree with it or not. In fact change is the one thing you should count on.
VFX is not today what it was 10 years ago, 20 years ago.... it has been and always will be ever evolving.
I transitioned from motion design and video editing into AI, finishing my Masters in AI as of writing this, and let met tell you, our company is heavily leaning towards using these new technologies, but in a way that gives VFX artists and photographers and video editors more work. The plan is to teach the algo the "styles" of the artists, and then use the styles of the artists to make a quick mock up for the client, to see which styles he prefers for a particular shoot, and when the client is satisfied with the image or a particular style, then we contact the artist and give him the Gig. So i do think generic things that everyone knows how to do will be done by AI, but particular styles and things that have artistic leaning, that truly represents the artist, will be what makes one artist more successful than someone else
Overtime AI will replace most jobs in all of the industries...simple manual labor like cleaning cooking and waiting table jobs are actually most likely to survive for humans because it's cheaper for humans to do it.
If you read A World without Work by Daniel Susskind it explains this very well. It also talks about how people like to set a limit to what AI can do, but it's not a good way to think about it because it's just a moving target. Better way to look at it is look at the general trend of development. It's a fascinating read. It sheds a light into how AI really works and its capabilities, and how this industrial revolution could be different from the past ones
A 140 years ago there was fears that The "Camera" would render artists irrelevant. Since why pay to have a portrait made when the camera could take a magic picture and it was real. No skill needed, this magic box captured reality perfectly. Musicians also fear the recording of live music as it rendered the performance of music irrelevant since you could do it once. and play it millions of times. Evolution of an industry sure it will hurt "existing" structure and jobs as we know it. However it will always create new jobs and force those in it to evolve and adapt to new paradigms, and create more jobs and expression than before. Change is a part of any business. Not just VFX. People in all sectors have a lot to fear by AI and robotics, but only if the fear losing what they have and the inability to adapt and evolve. Yes that is a true difficult reality. But its not happening today. The future is not written. You can either be a part of it and make it, or let yourself be consumed by it. It is your choice.
I for one, have been at this for over 30 years and I have seen a lot of change. That being said, I think there will be always the need for artists and those who create art. VFX isn't really creating art. Unless you are at the producer/director level your a technician serving a client who wants X and is driving the creative. Finding your space and serving that niche has always been the struggle of artists to define themselves as unique and marketable.
I think that's were a lot of folks are getting scared, because getting to that level is hard. Alot harder than just doing what the client wants. There will always be a need, it just won't always be the same as it is now.
It'll happen eventually, I'm not sure whether 8 years is enough time for video AI to get good enough.
Looking at the AI models you mentioned, I still shake my head in disbelief every day when I see new images created by them because they're so good. However, they do have severe limitations when it comes to requesting something very specific. For example, when you describe two people in detail, the model will be unable to differentiate between them and mix features between both people.
These things will be ironed out in the coming years of course. But moving images are orders of magnitude more difficult to do without any temporal artifacts, so it'll be quite a while before we can describe a VFX shot in detail, including the image composition etc., and get a satisfying output.