image: AR6 Synthesis Report 2023
It was just yesterday that I wrote about whether or not we’re “doomed.” As if right on cue, today, the UN released its “final warning” on climate change. And if you think I’m a “doomer,” well, it turns out I’ve got nothing on…the world’s best scientists, who wrote much of this report. What does it say?
Global average temperatures are estimated to rise 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7 degrees Fahrenheit) above preindustrial levels sometime around “the first half of the 2030s,” as humans continue to burn coal, oil and natural gas.
That might not sound like a big deal, but it is, because 1.5 degrees was of course the target that we hoped to limit warming to. Instead, it’s all but certain we’re going to cross it…in the next decade, probably much sooner. The message: this is our last chance.
Hence, the Secretary General of the UN’s been using increasingly apocalyptic language: “Humanity is on thin ice — and that ice is melting fast.” Guterres is desperately trying to get our civilization, our leaders, our nations, to do something.
Guterres called on governments to take drastic action to reduce emissions by investing in renewable energy and low-carbon technology. He said rich countries must try to reach net zero greenhouse gas emissions “as close as possible to 2040”, rather than waiting for the 2050 deadline most have signed up to.
Why is he pleading? Let’s delve into what the report really say, beneath the headlines, which is even scarier than they are. See that red line in the pic above? It’s not temperature. Oh, no — we should be so lucky. It’s carbon emissions, and under current policies, they never come down, which means…the temperature goes on rising. How far? To three degrees, by 2100, but since this much warming arrived way faster, with far worse consequences than expected, that’ll probably happen much sooner, too. The picture, in other words is…well, let’s keep going. The main warning, I’d say, is this: “without a strengthening of policies, global warming of 3.2C is projected by 2100.”